Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)


Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016

Special issue on “Population ageing”

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016 
2017,  277 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
Open access


Refereed Articles

A unifying framework for the study of population aging
Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov

Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Sergei Scherbov and Warren Sanderson

Population ageing dynamics in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic
Anastasia Emelyanova and Arja Rautio

Certain characteristics of population ageing using a prospective approach: Serbia as a case study
Jelena Stojilkovic Gnjatovic and Mirjana Devedzic

The impact of physical health on the postponement of retirement
Michael Boissonneault and Joop de Beer

Adjusting prospective old-age thresholds by health status: empirical findings and implications. A case study of Italy
Elena Demuru and Viviana Egidi

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts
Mikkel Christoffer Barslund and Marten von Werder

Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?
Alberto Palloni and Beatriz Novak

Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency
Tim Riffe, Pil H. Chung, Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes

A cross-national comparison of 12 biomarkers finds no universal biomarkers of aging among individuals aged 60 and older
David H. Rehkopf, Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H. Dow

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition



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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s155


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s155


Thema: journals
Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)


Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016

Special issue on “Population ageing”

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016 
2017,  277 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
Open access


Mikkel Christoffer Barslund, Marten von Werder
PDF Icon  Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts ()
S.  155 - 186
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s155

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften


doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s155
Abstract:
It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Compared to the older people of today, future older generations will be in better health, and will likely work longer. However, strictly from a public finance perspective, the extent to which the DDRs capture the challenges that stem from ageing depends on future changes in the age structure of the population, in behavioural patterns, and in age-related public transfers. Combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data (i.e., data on age-specific public transfers), we construct a ‘transferbased’ demographic dependency ratio for seven European countries up to 2050. We then compare the quantitative impact of the transfer-based DDR with that of the traditional DDR for three different policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing, and longer working lives. This is done by linking agespecific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge. First, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied, and substantially so for some countries, such as Austria, Finland, and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing (i.e., keeping health transfers constant for a given mortality rate) has a modest effect on public finances, except in the case of Sweden, where it plays an important role. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is captured well by the traditional DDR measure if the common assumption that immigrants are similar to natives is maintained. The immediate to short-term impact of immigration tends to be overstated by the traditional DDR measure. Finally, increasing the average length of working life is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. We estimate that extending the average length of working life by three to five years over the next 25 years – roughly in line with the gain in life expectancy – will substantially reduce the impact of ageing on public transfers.

Published Online:  2017/10/12 11:22:26
Object Identifier:  0xc1aa5576 0x0036e632

Refereed Articles

A unifying framework for the study of population aging
Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov

Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Sergei Scherbov and Warren Sanderson

Population ageing dynamics in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic
Anastasia Emelyanova and Arja Rautio

Certain characteristics of population ageing using a prospective approach: Serbia as a case study
Jelena Stojilkovic Gnjatovic and Mirjana Devedzic

The impact of physical health on the postponement of retirement
Michael Boissonneault and Joop de Beer

Adjusting prospective old-age thresholds by health status: empirical findings and implications. A case study of Italy
Elena Demuru and Viviana Egidi

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts
Mikkel Christoffer Barslund and Marten von Werder

Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?
Alberto Palloni and Beatriz Novak

Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency
Tim Riffe, Pil H. Chung, Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes

A cross-national comparison of 12 biomarkers finds no universal biomarkers of aging among individuals aged 60 and older
David H. Rehkopf, Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H. Dow



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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at