Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)


Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016

Special issue on “Population ageing”

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016 
2017,  277 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
Open access


Refereed Articles

A unifying framework for the study of population aging
Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov

Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Sergei Scherbov and Warren Sanderson

Population ageing dynamics in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic
Anastasia Emelyanova and Arja Rautio

Certain characteristics of population ageing using a prospective approach: Serbia as a case study
Jelena Stojilkovic Gnjatovic and Mirjana Devedzic

The impact of physical health on the postponement of retirement
Michael Boissonneault and Joop de Beer

Adjusting prospective old-age thresholds by health status: empirical findings and implications. A case study of Italy
Elena Demuru and Viviana Egidi

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts
Mikkel Christoffer Barslund and Marten von Werder

Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?
Alberto Palloni and Beatriz Novak

Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency
Tim Riffe, Pil H. Chung, Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes

A cross-national comparison of 12 biomarkers finds no universal biomarkers of aging among individuals aged 60 and older
David H. Rehkopf, Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H. Dow

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition



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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s187


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s187


Thema: journals
Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)


Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016

Special issue on “Population ageing”

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8151-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8247-4
Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2016 
2017,  277 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
Open access


Alberto Palloni, Beatriz Novak
PDF Icon  Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they? ()
S.  187 - 228
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s187

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften


doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2016s187
Abstract:
In this paper, we use new models to convert subjective expectations elicited from individual responses into conditional survival functions.We also estimate the effects of individual characteristics and assess the impact of health shocks on individual updates of subjective expectations. We use Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data from 1992 to 2006. By and large, our results confirm past empirical findings, but also identify patterns not documented in previous research. We show that the subjective probabilities are remarkably close to the results of actual life tables constructed from observed data, that whites underestimate their survival chances more than blacks, that women underestimate their survival chances more than men, and that the subjective underestimation of conditional survival increases with age in all population subgroups. We find significant differences in the survival outlooks of the original HRS cohort and a more recent HRS cohort (1992 versus 2004). These differences persist after introducing suitable controls. The observed mortality differentials between smokers and non-smokers, obese and non-obese individuals, and high-education and low-education groups are quite close to those of these subgroups’ subjective survival expectations. Finally, we find large updating effects that result from recent health shocks on subjective expectations.

Published Online:  2017/10/12 11:23:53
Object Identifier:  0xc1aa5576 0x0036e634

Refereed Articles

A unifying framework for the study of population aging
Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov

Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Sergei Scherbov and Warren Sanderson

Population ageing dynamics in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic
Anastasia Emelyanova and Arja Rautio

Certain characteristics of population ageing using a prospective approach: Serbia as a case study
Jelena Stojilkovic Gnjatovic and Mirjana Devedzic

The impact of physical health on the postponement of retirement
Michael Boissonneault and Joop de Beer

Adjusting prospective old-age thresholds by health status: empirical findings and implications. A case study of Italy
Elena Demuru and Viviana Egidi

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts
Mikkel Christoffer Barslund and Marten von Werder

Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?
Alberto Palloni and Beatriz Novak

Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency
Tim Riffe, Pil H. Chung, Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes

A cross-national comparison of 12 biomarkers finds no universal biomarkers of aging among individuals aged 60 and older
David H. Rehkopf, Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H. Dow



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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at