Mortality deceleration is not informative of unobserved heterogeneity in open groups

Elizabeth Wrigley-Field

doi:doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2013s15

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2013

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7625-1
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7645-9
Online Edition

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2013
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2013
2013, 349 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
€ 40,–
Open access

Introduction
Graziella Caselli and Marc Luy: Determinants of unusual and differential longevity

Refereed Articles
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field: Mortality deceleration is not informative of unobserved heterogeneity in open groups

Shiro Horiuchi, Nadine Ouellette, Siu Lan Karen Cheung and Jean-Marie Robine: Modal age at death: lifespan indicator in the era of longevity extension

Jon Anson: Surviving to be the oldest old—destiny or chance?

Michel Poulain, Anne Herm and Gianni Pes: The Blue Zones: areas of exceptional longevity around the world

Luis Rosero-Bixby, William H. Dow and David H. Rehkopf: The Nicoya region of Costa Rica: a high longevity island for elderly males

Sebastian Klüsener and Rembrandt D. Scholz: Regional hot spots of exceptional longevity in Germany

Richard G. Rogers, Patrick M. Krueger, Richard Miech and Elizabeth M. Lawrence: Lifetime abstainers and mortality risk in the United States

Maria Winkler-Dworak and Heiner Kaden: The longevity of academicians: evidence from the Saxonian Academy of Sciences and Humanities in Leipzig

Morgan E. Levine and Eileen M. Crimmins: Evidence of resiliency among long-lived smokers

Ethan J. Sharygin and Michel Guillot: Ethnicity, russification and excess mortality in Kazakhstan

Graziella Caselli, Rosa Maria Lipsi, Enrica Lapucci and James W. Vaupel: Exploring Sardinian longevity: women fertility and parental transmission of longevity

Valérie Jarry, Alain Gagnon and Robert Bourbeau: Maternal age, birth order and other early-life factors: a family-level approach to exploring exceptional survival

Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova: Determinants of exceptional human longevity: new ideas and findings

Luisa Salaris, Nicola Tedesco and Michel Poulain: Familial transmission of human longevity: a population-based study in an inland village of Sardinia (Italy), 1850–2010

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

Bestellung/Order

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2013
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7625-1
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7645-9
Online Edition

Send or fax to your local bookseller or to:

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2,
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: bestellung.verlag@oeaw.ac.at
UID-Nr.: ATU 16251605, FN 71839x Handelsgericht Wien, DVR: 0096385

Bitte senden Sie mir
Please send me

Exemplar(e) der genannten Publikation
copy(ies) of the publication overleaf

NAME

ADRESSE / ADDRESS

ORT / CITY

LAND / COUNTRY

ZAHLUNGSMETHODE / METHOD OF PAYMENT

Visa Euro / Master American Express

NUMMER

Ablaufdatum / Expiry date:

I will send a cheque Vorausrechnung / Send me a proforma invoice

DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE

BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)

Home

Order

Print

DIN-A4-Flyer

HTML-Druck

References

BibTeX

EndNote

RIS/Zotero

Mendeley

QR-Code

Share

X
BibTEX-Export:

X
EndNote/Zotero-Export:

X
RIS-Export:

Researchgate-Export (COinS)

Permanent QR-Code

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2013s15

Complete Issue

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2013

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7625-1
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-7645-9
Online Edition

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2013
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2013
2013, 349 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert
€ 40,–
Open access

Elizabeth Wrigley-Field

Mortality deceleration is not informative of unobserved heterogeneity in open groups ()

S. 15 - 36
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2013s15

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften

Abstract:
Studies of mortality deceleration sometimes use the order of deceleration between two groups—such as birth cohorts or subpopulations defined by race or sex—to draw conclusions about population heterogeneity. These studies often draw on the fact that between two closed groups, ceteris paribus, the higher-mortality group will decelerate at a younger age. This paper gives a first consideration to the order of deceleration between open groups. I construct a model with a one-way flow from ‘healthy’ to ‘sick’ status and, crucially, assume that a subset of the cohort has elevated risk for both sickness and death. Using simulations designed to resemble, in the aggregate, cohorts in the Human Mortality Database, I show that mortality deceleration order in such a cohort is essentially unpredictable because it depends on the interaction between a large number of parameters, some of which are unobserved in empirical data. These results suggest that it may be challenging to extend the study of mortality deceleration to include open groups whose memberships are selected for frailty or robustness, while still drawing meaningful conclusions about population heterogeneity.

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at