• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018

Broadening demographic horizons

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Introduction

Broadening Demographic Horizons: Demographic Studies Beyond Age and Gender
Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov

Demographic Debate

Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) Themes
William P. Butz

Can Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?
Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg, Meng Xu

Probabilistic demographic forecasts
Nico Keilman

Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century
Philip Rees

Research Articles

Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Gavin W. Jones

Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system
Graziella Caselli, Rosa Maria Lipsi

Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education
Alexia Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer

Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change
James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell, Nicholas Biddle

The end of population ageing in the more developed world
Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland

From intentions to births: paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course
Maria Rita Testa, Francesco Rampazzo

Towards causal forecasting of international migration
Frans Willekens

Data and Trends

Summary of Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries
Nicholas Gailey, Wolfgang Lutz

"Express transitioning" as a special case of the demographic transition
Marc Luy, Bernhard Köppen

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2
Online Edition



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The end of population aging in high-income countries

    Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018, pp. 163-175, 2019/02/26

Broadening demographic horizons

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163



doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163

Abstract

Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.

Published Online: 2019/02/26 08:47:14

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003a4447

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