Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’

Nicholas  Gailey; Wolfgang  Lutz

doi:doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s221

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018

Broadening demographic horizons

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2
Online Edition

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018
2018
Open access

Introduction

Broadening Demographic Horizons: Demographic Studies Beyond Age and Gender
Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov

Demographic Debate

Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) Themes
William P. Butz

Can Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?
Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg, Meng Xu

Probabilistic demographic forecasts
Nico Keilman

Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century
Philip Rees

Research Articles

Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Gavin W. Jones

Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system
Graziella Caselli, Rosa Maria Lipsi

Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education
Alexia Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer

Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change
James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell, Nicholas Biddle

The end of population ageing in the more developed world
Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland

From intentions to births: paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course
Maria Rita Testa, Francesco Rampazzo

Towards causal forecasting of international migration
Frans Willekens

Data and Trends

Summary of Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries
Nicholas Gailey, Wolfgang Lutz

"Express transitioning" as a special case of the demographic transition
Marc Luy, Bernhard Köppen

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2
Online Edition

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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s221

Complete Issue

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018

Broadening demographic horizons

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2
Online Edition

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018
2018
Open access

Nicholas Gailey,

Wolfgang Lutz

Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’ ()

S. 221 - 234
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s221

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften

doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s221

Abstract:
In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at