Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 Fertility across time and space
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 Fertility across time and space
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8 Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 2020 292 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert € 60,–
Nicolò Cavalli
S. 237 - 263 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res06
Abstract: Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paper aggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countries and territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Google search volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g., 2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countries with lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertility rates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levels of future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct the role that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions by incorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-quality framework à la Becker. Keywords: future orientation; total fertility rate; hyperbolic discounting; quantityquality trade-off; digital trace data; Google trends; digital demography Published Online: 2020/12/29 09:32:45 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003c1f9f Rights: .
Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |