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GI_Forum 2021, Volume 9, Issue 2
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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GI_Forum 2021, Volume 9, Issue 2, pp. 65-81, 2021/12/28
Mountain forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In light of the trend of temperature increase and related climatic extremes in the Greater Alpine Area, mountain forests are likely to undergo dramatic changes in the coming centuries. Therefore, forest managers face the challenge of adapting forests to support resilience to climate change. To facilitate this process, the forest gap model ForClim, a process-based forest succession model, was applied to generate site-specific information on future forest stand development and species composition. The tree species composition without management activities was predicted up to 2100 assuming a stable climate, and for both moderate and severe climate-change scenarios. Furthermore, three different forest stand development scenarios were implemented. The forest stand investigated in our research shows significant climate-sensitivity. Results demonstrate that deciduous mixed forest stands are necessary to increase resilience and manage forests for climate change. Using active silvicultural measures, such as assisted migration through planting thermophilus species, negative effects of climate change could be reduced. The modelling approach presented here is appropriate for assessing the impacts of climate change and supporting decision making by local forest managers.
Keywords: dynamic vegetation model, mountain forest, long-term development, tree species composition, Austria