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Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
The causes and consequences of depopulation
 Federico Benassi,
Annalisa Busetta,
Gerardo Gallo,
Manuela Stranges
S. 311
Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi: 10.1553/p-5dfz-c44a
Abstract:
Population trends in Italy are strongly spatially differentiated, with some munic- ipalities showing a systematic loss of population, and others showing an equally continuous demographic increase. Here, we focus our attention on the spatial dimension of population change, looking at how different socio-economic and demographic dimensions affect population changes, as well as their spatial effects. After performing a preliminary descriptive analysis of the trends of population growth and decline in Italy over the last 40 years and the relevant demographic components, we used a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to investigate the potential existence of a diffusion process and the determinants of the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019 at the municipal level. The spatial dimension and local heterogeneities in Italy were found to be highly relevant in the analysis of population decline. Moreover, we examined the relationship between demographic, social and economic factors and the demographic growth/decline of municipalities in the subsequent 10 years. Among the different covariates included in the model, the demographic composition of the population, the female activity rate, the youth employment rate and the presence/absence of a school proved to be strongly related to population growth and decline in Italian municipalities.
Italy; spatial Durbin model; spatial demography; local analysis; municipalities Published Online:
2023/03/14 09:10:42 Object Identifier:
0xc1aa5572 0x003e1db9
Rights:All rights reserved.For questions regarding copyright and copies please contact us by email.
Introduction
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Debate
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A governance perspective on East Central Europe’s population predicament: Young exit, grey voice and lopsided loyalty
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Perspectives
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Review Articles
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Research Articles
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Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities
Fernando Gil-Alonso - Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco - Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies
Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective
Federico Benassi - Annalisa Busetta - Gerardo Gallo - Manuela Stranges
Demographic sustainability in Italian territories: The link between depopulation and population ageing
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Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany
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Data and Trends
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