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Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
The causes and consequences of depopulation
 Wolfgang Lutz
S. 41
Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi: 10.1553/p-3cp7-4e6b
Abstract:
Summarising earlier publications, I draw a rather optimistic picture of the human future on this planet, if priority is given to universal education, and, in particular, to female education. The benefits of a greater focus on education range from a lower desired family size and empowerment to reach this goal, to better family health, to poverty reduction, to greater resilience, to expanded capacities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and, ultimately, to the emergence of better institutions and social values that are less obsessed with material consumption and violent nationalism and more concerned with cooperation, care and wellbeing. I also show that extended periods of below replacement level fertility are beneficial for long-term human wellbeing, and that the human population is on the path to peaking during the second half of this century and then declining to 2–4 billion people by 2200. As this smaller population will be well-educated, they should be healthy and wealthy enough to be able to cope fairly successfully with the already unavoidable (moderate) effects of climate change.
population; climate change; long-term; human capital; female education Published Online:
2023/03/17 14:49:39 Object Identifier:
0xc1aa5572 0x003e1ec8
Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Introduction
Population decline: Towards a rational, scientific research agenda
Zuzanna Brzozowska, Ekaterina Zhelenkova and Stuart Gietel-Basten
Debate
Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think...
Wendy Sigle
The human eco-predicament: Overshoot and the population conundrum
William E. Rees
Population decline will likely become a global trend and benefit long-term human wellbeing
Wolfgang Lutz
Depopulation or population decline? Demographic nightmares and imaginaries
Stuart Gietel-Basten
A governance perspective on East Central Europe’s population predicament: Young exit, grey voice and lopsided loyalty
Pieter Vanhuysse
Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development
Vegard Skirbekk
The key role of early education in an ageing and shrinking population: The example of Germany
Elke Loichinger - C. Katharina Spiess
Perspectives
Implementing youth-oriented policies: A remedy for depopulation in rural regions?
Martina Schorn
Review Articles
Revisiting the impact of urban shrinkage on residential segregation in European cities
David Huntington
Research Articles
Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries
Nick Parr
How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway?
Marianne Tønnessen - Astri Syse
The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline
Brienna Perelli-Harris - Yuliya Hilevych
Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities
Fernando Gil-Alonso - Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco - Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies
Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective
Federico Benassi - Annalisa Busetta - Gerardo Gallo - Manuela Stranges
Demographic sustainability in Italian territories: The link between depopulation and population ageing
Cecilia Reynaud - Sara Miccoli
Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany
Patrizio Vanella - Timon Hellwagner - Philipp Deschermeier
Data and Trends
Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration
Olga Gagauz - Tatiana Tabac - Irina Pahomii
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