Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023

The causes and consequences of depopulation

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
2023, 443 Seiten, zahlr. Tabellen und Farbabbildungen, 24x17cm, broschiert, englisch,
Open access

Introduction

Population decline: Towards a rational, scientific research agenda
Zuzanna Brzozowska, Ekaterina Zhelenkova and Stuart Gietel-Basten

Debate

Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think...
Wendy Sigle

The human eco-predicament: Overshoot and the population conundrum
William E. Rees

Population decline will likely become a global trend and benefit long-term human wellbeing
Wolfgang Lutz

Depopulation or population decline? Demographic nightmares and imaginaries
Stuart Gietel-Basten

A governance perspective on East Central Europe’s population predicament: Young exit, grey voice and lopsided loyalty
Pieter Vanhuysse

Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development
Vegard Skirbekk

The key role of early education in an ageing and shrinking population: The example of Germany
Elke Loichinger - C. Katharina Spiess

Perspectives

Implementing youth-oriented policies: A remedy for depopulation in rural regions?
Martina Schorn

Review Articles

Revisiting the impact of urban shrinkage on residential segregation in European cities
David Huntington

Research Articles

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries
Nick Parr

How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway?
Marianne Tønnessen - Astri Syse

The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline
Brienna Perelli-Harris - Yuliya Hilevych

Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities
Fernando Gil-Alonso - Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco - Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective
Federico Benassi - Annalisa Busetta - Gerardo Gallo - Manuela Stranges

Demographic sustainability in Italian territories: The link between depopulation and population ageing
Cecilia Reynaud - Sara Miccoli

Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany
Patrizio Vanella - Timon Hellwagner - Philipp Deschermeier

Data and Trends

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration
Olga Gagauz - Tatiana Tabac - Irina Pahomii

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

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Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2,
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https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: bestellung.verlag@oeaw.ac.at
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doi:10.1553/p-g5fe-hafz

Complete Issue

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023

The causes and consequences of depopulation

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
2023, 443 Seiten, zahlr. Tabellen und Farbabbildungen, 24x17cm, broschiert, englisch,
Open access

Marianne Tønnessen,

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9727-8177

Astri Syse

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1754-1594

How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway? ()

S. 211

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften

doi:10.1553/p-g5fe-hafz

Abstract:
Population ageing is a topic of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of ageing, increased fertility or immigration are often proposed as demographic remedies. Changed emigration is, however, rarely mentioned. We explore whether reduced emigration could mitigate ageing in a country like Norway. Using cohort-component methods, we create hypothetical future demographic scenarios with lower emigration rates, and we present (prospective) old-age dependency ratios, population growth and shares of immigrants. We also estimate howmuch fertility and immigrationwould have to change to yield the same effects. In different scenarios, emigration is reduced for the total population and for subgroups, while also taking into account that reduced emigration of natives will entail reduced return migration. Our results show that even a dramatic 50% decrease in annual emigration would mitigate ageing only slightly, by lowering the old-age dependency ratio in 2060 from 0.54 to 0.52. This corresponds to the anti-ageing effect of 15% higher fertility, or one-quarter extra child per woman.

Keywords: emigration; ageing; population size; population projections; population policy
Published Online: 2023/03/23 11:55:44
Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003e2241
Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at