Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024 Population and climate change
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024 Population and climate change
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-9476-7 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-9477-4 Online Edition Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024
2024, ONLINE FIRST
Emma Engström,
Martin Kolk
doi:10.1553/p-n5en-z38a Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Abstract: Supplementary material We theoretically explore the interrelations between population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) for various environmental impacts (I ) using IPAT-type modelling. To illustrate the differences across environmental dimensions, climate and land use impacts are modelled. We use middle-of-the-road projections for population and per capita income and different forecasting methods for technology, including extrapolations of historical trends, models based on stochastic IPAT (STIRPAT) and predictions in the literature. The different approaches are compared within the IPAT framework. We also explore the consequences of alternative trajectories for P, A and T, and we discuss the implications of these trajectories for reaching global goals based on our modelling. The findings are analysed in light of three theories in environmental sociology, each of which places a different emphasis on the different components of IPAT. We argue that the large amount of technological mitigation assumed in many forecasts makes affluence and population relatively irrelevant for climate change. However, we also consider it likely that both factors will be determinants of land use impact in the 21st century. Keywords: IPAT, Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), Green growth, Human ecology, STIRPAT model, Land use impact Published Online: 2024/02/01 10:04:43 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003eceec Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Debate
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |