• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022

Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences

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Introduction

The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction
Paola Di Giulio - Anne Goujon - Guillaume Marois

Perspectives

Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course
Karl Ulrich Mayer

COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography
F. Landis MacKellar

Research Articles

Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries
David A. Sánchez-Páez

Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)
Miguel Sánchez-Romero

The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers
Luis Rosero-Bixby - Tim Miller

Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates
Patrizio Vanella - Christian Wiessner - Anja Holz - Gérard Krause - Annika Möhl - Sarah Wiegel - Berit Lange - Heiko Becher

COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres
Daniela Bellani - Daniele Vignoli

Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic
Raffaele Guetto - Giacomo Bazzani - Daniele Vignoli

Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic
Wendy D. Manning - Karen Benjamin Guzzo - Monica A. Longmore - Peggy C. Giordano

Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicentres in Italy
Simone Ghislandi - Raya Muttarak - Markus Sauerberg - Benedetta Scotti

Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account
Martin Kolk - Sven Drefahl - Matthew Wallace - Gunnar Andersson

Regional COVID-19 mortality in Brazil by age
Emerson A. Baptista - Bernardo L. Queiroz - Everton E. C. Lima

Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico
Claudia Masferrer - Oscar Rodríguez Chávez

Data and Trends

Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic
Ramon Bauer - Markus Speringer - Peter Frühwirt - Roman Seidl - Franz Trautinger

COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density
Zilin Li - Stuart A. Gietel-Basten - Rachel Ganly - Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz

Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic
Everton C. Lima - Camila F. Soares - José H. C. Monteiro da Silva

Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic
Andreas Backhaus

Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece
Lydia Xourafi - Polyxeni Sardi - Anastasia Kostaki

Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19?
A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales
Nicole Mun Sim Lai

Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries
Valentin Rousson - Fred Paccaud - Isabella Locatelli

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8882-7
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9003-5
Online Edition



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The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers

    Luis Rosero-Bixby, Tim Miller

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022, pp. 143-166, 2021/12/15

Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3

Abstract

The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; Reproductive number R; Demographic methods; Net reproduction rate

Published Online: 2021/12/15 14:00:00

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003fa5cf

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Rights: © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2024 This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.