• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020

Fertility across time and space

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Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
Tomáš Sobotka

Debate

International political economy and future fertility trends
Alícia Adserà

Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility
Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi and Mariona Lozano

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems
Stuart Gietel-Basten



Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification
Trude Lappegård



The wish for a child
Anna Rotkirch

Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets
Wolfgang Lutz

Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia
Setsuya Fukuda

Review Article

Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents
Yen-hsin Alice Cheng

Research Articles

Laggards in the global fertility transition
David Shapiro, Andrew Hinde

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics
Michaela Potančoková, Guillaume Marois

Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
Ryohei Mogi, Michael Dominic del Mundo

What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
Konstantin Kazenin, Vladimir Kozlov

Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, Anne Herm

Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search
Nicolò Cavalli

Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space
Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8
Online Edition



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Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification

    Trude Lappegard

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020, pp. 43-48, 2020/07/22

Fertility across time and space

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04

Abstract

In this contribution, I argue that future fertility trends will depend on how fertility behavior develops at the intersection of gender and social stratification. This view is based on trends in fertility behavior, such as the gender gap in fertility trajectories, the surprising and strong reversal of fertility trends in the Nordic countries, and the appearance of new social inequalities in fertility. My prediction for future fertility trends is that social stratification will play a larger role than gender in the decision to have children. Because both men and women with low education and poor job prospects will face the most constraints, they will be more inclined than their better educated, higher income counterparts to postpone parenthood and have fewer children. It is likely that in many countries, these trends will result in lower overall fertility levels. Future research on these new fertility trends should link the two systems of gender equality and social stratification, and investigate how the interactions between them operate depending on the institutional context, changes in the economy, and globalization.

Keywords: Fertility; Gender; Social stratification; Globalization