• Wolfgang Lutz - Gustav Feichtinger (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2005

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Contents:
Will Population Ageing Decrease Productivity? Symposium on Population Ageing and Economic Productivity, December 2-4, 2004, Vienna Institute of Demography; Alexia Prskawetz: Background and Summary of Discussion; Vegard Skirbekk: Productivity Decreases with Age; Thomas Lindh: Productivity is a System Property and Need Not Decrease with the Age of Workforce;
M. N. Bhrolcháin and L. Toulemon: Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?; C. Bühler and D. Philipov: Social Capital Related to Fertility: Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evidence for Bulgaria; Tomás Sobotka, Maria Winkler-Dworak, Maria Rita Testa, Wolfgang Lutz, Dimiter Philipov, Henriette Engelhardt, and Richard Gisser: Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria; A. Prskawetz and B. Zagaglia: Second Births in Austria; Martin Spielauer: Concentration of Reproduction in Austria: General Trends and Differentials by Educational Attainment and Urban-Rural Setting; F. Trovato: Narrowing Sec Differential in Life Expectancy in Canada and Austria: Comparative analysis; R. Kronberger: Welche Bedeutung hat eine alternde Bevölkerung für das österreichische Steueraufkommen?; W. Lutz and S. Scherbov: Will Population Ageing Necessarily Lead to an Increase in the Number of Persons with Disabilities?; Recent Demographic Trends in Austria (R. Gisser); Fertility in Austria: An Overview (T. Sobotka)

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2005


ISBN 978-3-7001-3576-0
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ISBN 978-3-7001-3655-2
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2,
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: bestellung.verlag@oeaw.ac.at
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Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?

    Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, Laurent Toulemon

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2005, pp. 83-107, 2024/12/12

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2005s83


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2005



doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2005s83

Abstract

Fertility rates in most developed societies have been declining at younger ages and rising at older ages. This phenomenon is widely referred
to as reflecting the postponement of fertility. But is this an accurate description? The present paper considers whether recent changes in the age-pattern of childbearing in France can be described as postponement. The statistical features of time series of rates are distinguished from the underlying behavioural process generating them. Criteria for the presence of postponement are proposed. In the absence of detailed, longitudinal information on intentions, the occurrence or otherwise of
postponement is assessed by indirect means. Some evidence is found consistent with fertility postponement in recent decades. However, it cannot be interpreted causally, and so cannot be used either to explain recent trends or to anticipate future trends. Much more detailed evidence is required to establish the existence of postponement in the behavioural sense than is generally assumed.