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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024Population and climate change
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024, pp. 1-8, 2024/12/09
Population and climate change
Our thinking about future trends in both population and climate change has traditionally been dominated by the view of smooth trajectories towards ultimate stabilization. But reality turns out to be different: climate warming will not stop at the Paris goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but is expected to overshoot, and will therefore need to be addressed through negative emissions (taking carbon out of the atmosphere) later in the century; similarly, fertility decline has not stopped at the replacement level, and instead seems to be falling to lower and lower levels, with nobody knowing when it will stop and whether there will be an upturn. In both cases, societies will need to adapt to rather extreme discontinuities, rather than being able to count on smooth stabilization.
Furthermore, the reality that climate change overshooting will require serious mitigative action during the second half of this century brings alternative demographic trends back into the picture as potentially relevant factors in mitigation, since alternative fertility and education trends in the near future will take decades to be reflected in changing population sizes and structures, including in human capital.
Keywords: Climate change ; Fertility decline ; Stabilization ; Overshooting ; Mitigation ; Adaption