• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.) - Miguel Sánchez-Romero - Michaela Kreyenfeld - Iñaki Permanyer - Michaela Potančoková - Vanessa di Lego (Guest Eds.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025

Population inequality matters

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Research Articles

Inequality, heterogeneity, and chance: Multiple factors and their interactions
Hal Caswell - Silke F. van Daalen

Life tables under current risk composition based on observed, fixed characteristics
Magdalena Muszyńska-Spielauer - Tim Riffe

Leadership skills and family formation among males. A study based on Swedish register data
Steffen Peters - Kieron Barclay

Life course heterogeneity and the future labour force – A dynamic microsimulation analysis for Austria
Thomas Horvath - Martin Spielauer - Philipp Warum

Data and Trends

The contributions of past immigration to current age-sex structures of immigrant populations in Australia
James Raymer - James O’Donnell - Qing Guan

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9681-5
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9682-2
Online Edition



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Life course heterogeneity and the future labour force – A dynamic microsimulation analysis for Austria

    Thomas Horvath, Martin Spielauer, Philipp Warum

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025, pp. , 2020/03/20

Population inequality matters

doi: 10.1553/p-35zm-55f2


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doi:10.1553/p-35zm-55f2


Abstract

Using Austria as a case study, this paper demonstrates how capturing life course heterogeneity improves the accuracy and policy relevance of socio-demographic projections, and how considering this population heterogeneity impacts labour force dynamics and economic dependency ratios. We introduce and apply the microsimulation model microDEMS, focusing on education, migration background, health and labour market participation. Using administrative data, the model ensures longitudinal consistency of labour market careers, including insurance periods, and considers pension rules and reforms. Despite its level of detail, microDEMS is consistent with official demographic projections. To assess sensitivity, we create alternative scenarios that illustrate how different factors affect future labour force dynamics. The main result of our simulation analysis is the quantification of substantial mitigating effects of improvements in education and already adopted changes in pension legislation, which together reduce the impact of ageing on the economic dependency ratio by 55%.

Keywords: Population heterogeneity; Dynamic microsimulation; Labour force participation; Pension reform