![]() |
![]() |
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025Population inequality matters
|
![]() |
Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
![]() |
|
DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
|
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025, pp. , 2020/03/20
Population inequality matters
Using Austria as a case study, this paper demonstrates how capturing life course heterogeneity improves the accuracy and policy relevance of socio-demographic projections, and how considering this population heterogeneity impacts labour force dynamics and economic dependency ratios. We introduce and apply the microsimulation model microDEMS, focusing on education, migration background, health and labour market participation. Using administrative data, the model ensures longitudinal consistency of labour market careers, including insurance periods, and considers pension rules and reforms. Despite its level of detail, microDEMS is consistent with official demographic projections. To assess sensitivity, we create alternative scenarios that illustrate how different factors affect future labour force dynamics. The main result of our simulation analysis is the quantification of substantial mitigating effects of improvements in education and already adopted changes in pension legislation, which together reduce the impact of ageing on the economic dependency ratio by 55%.
Keywords: Population heterogeneity; Dynamic microsimulation; Labour force participation; Pension reform