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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026Special issue: Delayed reproduction
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026, pp. 1-34, 2026/05/27
Special issue: Delayed reproduction
Women’s educational attainment has usually been associated with higher childlessness, but the negative educational gradient in fertility seems to have shifted in some countries. One reason for this finding could be the increasing marginalisation of lower educated women in the partnering market. We investigate whether women with lower educational qualifications are less likely to have a first child due to changes in the educational gradient in union formation. We apply logistic regressions to recent European Social Survey data from 28 countries, grouped into four regions, that include women born between 1955 and 1985. For western, southern and eastern Europe, we find a negative association between education and fertility, which narrows at older ages in the western region. The association is positive but insignificant in the Nordic region. We also find an emerging positive educational gradient in union formation for western and southern Europe that partly mediates the association between education and fertility.
Keywords: Fertility • Childlessness • Parenthood • Union formation • Educational gradient in fertility • Europe