• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.) - Éva Beaujouan - Marie-Caroline Compans - Alice Goisis - Jasmin Passet-Wittig (Guest Eds.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026

Special issue: Delayed reproduction

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The Vienna Yearbook of Population Research is an open access journal that features contributions addressing population trends as well as a broad range of theoretical and methodological issues in population research. Besides Research articles and Review articles, the journal includes Data and Trends contributions, which analyse changes in population dynamics or present databases and data infrastructure. It also features Perspectives articles, which focus on ideas, concepts or theories, as well as invited Debates reflecting on selected questions and issues. Since 2008, the volumes have been devoted to selected themes following special calls for thematic issues.

The 2026 volume of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research brings together a diverse set of contributions examining delayed reproduction as a defining feature of contemporary demographic change. The papers explore how later transitions to parenthood reshape reproductive trajectories, fertility intentions and birth outcomes for individuals and societies. Particular emphasis is placed on heterogeneities and inequalities by educational background, migration status, and place of residence. Using both quantitative and qualitative approaches and drawing on data from Europe, the Americas, and Asia, the issue highlights that delayed reproduction is a lasting trend with significant consequences for future fertility and societies more broadly.
Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-5156-2
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-5157-9
Online Edition



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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2,
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: bestellung.verlag@oeaw.ac.at
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Quantifying the postponement in the age at first attempt to conceive and its consequences

    Gert Stulp, Rolf Granholm, Amke M. G. van Tintelen, Zoltán Lippényi

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026, pp. , 2026/06/10

Special issue: Delayed reproduction

doi: 10.1553/p-fzmf-d932


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doi:10.1553/p-fzmf-d932


Abstract

The substantial rise in the age at first birth in recent decades suggests that people are delaying their first attempt to have a child. The age at first birth, however, may not accurately reflect when people first attempt to conceive, given age-related declines in the ability to get pregnant and to achieve a live birth. Through a microsimulation model incorporating biological parameters and sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the distribution of the age at first attempt to conceive from 1960 to 1980 based on the age at first birth derived from Dutch administrative data. Over this period, the average age at first conception attempt, as inferred by the models, increases by two years. Unexpectedly, the average duration to childbirth remains stable despite later conception attempts, which is partly explained by a selection effect at advanced ages favouring couples with higher fecundity, with less fecund couples having higher rates of childlessness. We assess the influence of model assumptions on our results and underscore the promise of Approximate Bayesian Computation for future demographic and fertility research.

Keywords: Postponement; Age first attempt to conceive; Microsimulation; Childlessness; Selection bias; Approximate Bayesian computation

Published Online: 2026/06/10

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x0041a307

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Metrics: https://plu.mx/plum/a/?doi=10.1553/p-fzmf-d932

Rights: © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2026. This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.