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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026Special issue: Delayed reproduction
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
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Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2026, pp. , 2026/07/01
Special issue: Delayed reproduction
The question of whether the ongoing Nordic fertility decline reflects delayed fertility onset, weakening preferences for children or barriers to realising fertility ideals remains unresolved. We examine whether age-specific cohort ideals track cohort fertility forecasts in Denmark and Norway, using Generations and Gender Survey round 2 (2020) data to compare the stated ideal number of children with realised and forecasted cohort fertility at age 45. In both countries, women’s ideal family size exceeds the number of children they have or can expect to have. In Denmark, the ideals-expectations gap remains stable across cohorts, but it is forecasted to widen for the most recent cohorts; in Norway, the gap grows consistently across cohorts. In both countries, the widening gap is driven by forecasted declines in cohort fertility, which in turn are driven entirely by declining fertility before age 30.
Keywords: Fertility • Forecasting • Generations and Gender Survey • Ideals • Nordic countries