Depopulation has reached high levels in Moldova. In 1991, when Moldova became an independent state, the country’s population, including the Transnistrian region, was 4364.1 thousand inhabitants (Table 2). Between 1991 and 1997, the population decreased by 46.6 thousand, mainly due to outward migration (136.2 thousand), which was only partially offset by natural growth (89.6 thousand). Since 1998, the population has been declining faster than in the previous period due to large-scale emigration and natural decline. In 1998, without the Transnistrian population of 665.7 thousand (Chivaciuc, 2014), the population was 3655.6 thousand. In the population census of 2004, the population was 3383.0 thousand, having fallen by 272.6 thousand, with a natural decrease of 25.5 thousand individuals accounting for 9.4% and the emigration of 247.1 thousand individuals accounting for 90.65% of the total decline. By the next census (population and housing, 2014), the decline in the population was significant, falling to 2869.2 thousand. Between 1998 and 2021, the total decrease in the population had reached over one million, with migration accounting for 92.0% of the decline. In 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, international migration decreased, and the share of the population decline that was attributable to migration shrank accordingly.

The data on natural and migratory growth (Figure 2) show the oscillations of these indicators over the 1991–2021 period. In the first decade after independence, the prevalence of births over deaths was determined by the population structure, with young people accounting for a large share of the population, and older people making up a small share of the population. A negative natural increase was recorded for the first time in 1999. The natural decline of Moldova’s population over the 1999–2010 period ranged from −0.8‰ to −2.2‰. Between 2011–2016, there was a positive natural increase, with insignificant values up to 0.5‰, thanks to the growth in the reproductive-age population, i.e., the generations born in the mid-1980s, and the number of births. Natural decrease began to rise in 2017, and increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, to −3.8‰ in 2020 and to −6.3‰ in 2021.

Negative net migration can be observed over all three decades (Figure 2). The particularly high levels of net migration in 1991–1992 reflect the large flows of emigrants to Israel. For the period between 1993 and 2000, the indicator is low due to high levels of illegal migration (Mosneaga, 2013). Migration has been increasing since 2000–2003 due to the amnesties implemented in Southern Europe, and since 2007 as a result of family reunifications that followed these amnesties. Since 2014, a new wave of emigrants to Western European countries has been emerging. The net number of outward migrants was slightly more than 200 thousand in 2007–2011, and was 220 thousand in 2014–2019. The net migration rates for the two periods were between 12–15‰ and 9–18‰, respectively. In 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the net migration rate declined to 3–2.5‰.

The first migratory flows from Moldova began in the late 1980s, and consisted mainly of ethnic minorities, including Jews, Germans, Russians and Ukrainians, who were often encouraged to emigrate through the repatriation programs of the origin countries. Between 1989 and 1995, the number of ethnic migrants reached 176.4 thousand. The main destination countries were Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Germany and the USA.

While ethnic migration had largely ended by the mid-1990s, Moldovan citizens were starting to migrate in search of work and to earn money abroad. Due to restrictive migration policies in most EU countries, the largest flow of Moldovan workers during this period was to the Russian Federation and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Labor migration to the EU was significantly lower, and was mainly clandestine. Most illegal migrants from Moldova were in Southern European countries (Mosneaga, 2013).

Since 2000, migratory flows have changed their trajectories and characteristics. Labor migration to Europe has been increasing substantially, and the length of time Moldovans are staying in the host countries has been rising as well. At the same time, the first stocks of migrants have been emerging. The levels of migration to the EU have been increasing due to the amnesties offered to Moldovan citizens who were living illegally in countries like Italy, Spain and Portugal, and to the family reunifications that followed (Tabac and Gagauz, 2020). The number of emigrants in the 2000–2010 period exceeded 400 thousand, about 60% of whom emigrated to Italy or to Russia.

Our estimations based on data from the OECD international migration database, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the State Statistical Service of Ukraine and Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (Tolts, 2020) show that in Moldova over the study period, migration flows were segmented in two directions: towards the Russian Federation and towards Italy (Table 3).

These two countries hosted up to two-thirds of annual migration flows from Moldova in some years. Currently, these two countries host the most extensive stocks of Moldovan emigrants. Russia has become the main emigration destination for male workers, while women often migrate to Italy. During different periods, women who went to work in Italy accounted for 70–80% of the total number of Moldovan emigrants, while men who went to work in Russia accounted for about 70% of the total.

Although migration for temporary work was the most common form of migration in the first two decades of the study period, in the last decade, migration for settlement was increasing as well.

Recent trends in migration flows (over the last 10 years) point to a decrease in migration to Russia and Southern European countries, and an increase in migration to Western Europe, especially to countries such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom (Gagauz et al., 2021). Over the past decade, the ability of Moldovan citizens to acquire Romanian citizenship has played an essential role in the intensification of migration to other European countries (dual citizenship). Under art. 11 of the Romanian Citizenship Law no. 21 of 1 March 1991, all persons who had lived on Romanian territory since 1940 and their descendants up to the third generation have the right to acquire Romanian citizenship. Having access to Romanian citizenship has dramatically increased Moldovan citizens’ opportunities to emigrate to other European countries, as it has facilitated legal migration for purposes of employment to all EU countries, and has granted them social protections and employment rights equal to those of European citizens. In particular, having access to Romanian citizenship has increased family migration to Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

High levels of long-term or permanent mass migration combined with low rates of return migration is a pattern specific to Moldova. The Moldovan migrant stocks calculated by the World Bank in Bilateral Estimates of Migrant Stocks in 2010, 2013 and 2017 show an upward trend. Globally, Moldovan migrant stocks were estimated at over 770 thousand in 2010; at about 860 thousand in 2013; and at 1025 thousand in 2017 (World Bank, 2017).

The recent trends show increasing migration among the population of reproductive and working ages. Levels of migration are especially high among young people aged 15–34. The negative net migration in this age group has been estimated at 141.4 thousand, which represents just over 60% of the total net migration in the 2014–2020 period.

In 2014–2015, the group with the highest net outward migration rate was young people aged 15–24 years; with 25 out of 1000 people aged 15–24. In 2016–2017, the net outward migration rate of the 20–29 age group increased, to 37 and 52 out of 1000 people aged 20–24 and 25–29, respectively. In 2018–2019, the net outward migration rate was increasing not just among youth aged 20–29, but also among children aged less than 14. The net outward migration rate was highest in the 0–4 age group, with 34–37 per 1000 children aged 0–4. The restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the extremely high levels of migration: in 2020, a decrease in emigration at ages 15–34 and a positive increase in net migration at ages 40–70 was observed (Figure 3).

It may be assumed that a large share of the population of Moldova who are currently living abroad will not return to the country. It is difficult to estimate their number, but many emigrants of Moldovan origin and citizenship have lived in their destination country for 10, 20, and even 30 years. Many have retained their Moldovan citizenship even though they have also acquired the citizenship of their country of residence. More than one million Moldovan citizens have another citizenship as well (Tabac, 2019).

The number of people immigrating to Moldova is tiny. Thus, immigrants to Moldova neither offset the impact of the outflow of workers nor affect population growth in the country.

In 1991, Moldova had a relatively high total fertility rate compared to other countries, which ensured the replacement of generations (2.26 births per woman). However, in 1994, the TFR in Moldova dropped to less than two children per woman. In the following years, the TFR declined steadily, reaching a record low level of 1.43 live births per woman in 2002. Thereafter, however, fertility stabilised, and increased slowly as births that were postponed in the previous period were recuperated. In recent years, the TFR has, with some fluctuations, remained at a level of around 1.7 to 1.8 live births per woman. This level places Moldova among the countries with moderately low fertility, based on the benchmark proposed by Sobotka et al. (2019). Moreover, compared to other Eastern European countries, the TFR seems to be more favourable in Moldova, as it is significantly higher than the TFR in Belarus (1.45 in 2018) (National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, 2019) or in Russia (1.5 in 2019–2021) (Rosstat, 2022), even though these countries have had policies aimed at increasing fertility through financial incentives for more than a decade. At the same time, the TFR in Moldova is close to that of the neighbouring country of Romania, which has a TFR of 1.77 (Eurostat, 2019).

Period TFR in Moldova decreased continuously after 1991, which can be attributed in part to a compensatory decline after a period of significant fertility growth that was fostered by the pronatalist policies implemented in the Soviet Union in 1981, and in part to the impact of the worsening socio-economic situation in the country during the period following independence (Gagauz, 2018). The fertility postponement observed in Moldova starting in 1995 resulted in an increase in the mean age at first birth, which, in turn, led to a reduction in the TFR to 1.43 in 2002. However, the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (adjTFRp) was higher in the 1995–2013 period (Figure 4). Despite these fluctuations, cohort fertility rates (CTFR) were decreasing gradually, but did not fall below 1.75 live births per woman, which is considered the threshold for “very low” fertility (Myrskylä et al., 2013; Zeman et al., 2018). The completed cohort fertility rate is 2.2 for women born in 1960, 1.94 for women born in 1970 and 1.88 for women born in 1980 (40 years old in 2020).

In Moldova, the early fertility model has persisted. While the mean age at first birth increased slightly from 21.9 in 1995 to 24.5 in 2020, it has remained significantly lower than in other Eastern European countries.

Over the past three decades, fertility rates have been rising faster among women between ages 25 and 40, whereas they have been decreasing among women in their early twenties. Thus, the mean age at childbirth has continued to rise. Delayed motherhood is a long-lasting trend that has changed the profile of the period age-specific fertility curve (Figure 5). The curve’s shape lost its sharp top and shifted to the right at older ages, and the period ASFR significantly increased at ages 25 and older. The median age at childbirth increased from 22.8 in 1991 to 26.3 in 2020. The cohort ASFR (Figure 6) underwent similar changes. Among women in the youngest cohort born in 1980 (40 years old in 2020), who were at their most active reproductive ages in the first decade of the 21st century, the ASFR reached its highest levels when they were between ages 20 and 25. The median age at childbirth was 22.9 for the cohort born in 1965 (CCFR-40), and was 24.9 for the cohort born in 1980 (CCFR-40).

In recent years, the number of births in Moldova has fallen significantly due to the drop in population numbers and the migration of the reproductive-age population. While the number of births in 2014 was 40.9 thousand, by 2020, it had declined to 30.7 thousand. The female population currently of reproductive age includes the relatively small generations born in the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Thus, the number of women of childbearing age (aged 15–49) in Moldova decreased from 714.4 thousand in 2014 to 608.4 thousand in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic had an insignificant impact on fertility. In 2021, the TFR (1.73) decreased by just 0.03 births per woman compared to 2020 (1.76). This may be because contraceptive usage fell by around 40% among couples with and without medium-term fertility intentions (Emery and Koops, 2021).

Moldova is among the countries with high levels of mortality, in line with the pattern observed across the Eastern European region (Penina, 2021a; Vallin and Meslé, 2004). Male life expectancy in 2019 (66.6 years) was just one year higher than it was in 1965. Over the same period, female life expectancy increased by 5.0 years, reaching 75.0 years in 2019 (Penina et al., 2022). A high level of premature mortality, especially among men, results in a low level of life expectancy at birth (Pahomii, 2018), and a large gender gap (Penina, 2013).

In terms of life expectancy, Moldova lags behind the countries of Western Europe and the other former Soviet republics. A comparison of Moldova with Estonia and Sweden (Figure 7) shows a significant gap that has been increasing over time. In 1991, male life expectancy at birth in Moldova (64.4 years) was only 0.1 years lower than in Estonia (64.5 years), and was approximately 10 years lower than in Sweden (75 years). In 2021, male life expectancy at birth was 7.2 years lower in Moldova (65.2 years) than in Estonia (72.4 years), and was 16.2 years lower than in Sweden (81.4 years).

Among women in Moldova, mortality levels have been higher than in other European countries since the early 1990s, with Moldovan women having much lower life expectancy values than women in Estonia and Sweden. In 1991, female life expectancy at birth in Moldova (71.2 years) was 3.8 years lower than in Estonia (75 years) and 8.3 years lower than in Sweden (80.5 years). By 2021, the gap in life expectancy at birth between women in Moldova (73.1 years) and women in Estonia (81.3 years) had doubled to 8.2 years, while the gap between Moldovan women and women in Sweden (85 years) had increased to 11.9 years.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in mortality in both 2020 and 2021. Life expectancy at birth in Moldova dropped by 1.6 years for men and by 2 years for women in 2021 compared to 2019.

An analysis of the age-sex mortality patterns for 1991–2021 shows that the mortality profile did not change significantly over the past three decades (Figure 8). For both sexes, infant and child mortality rates declined the most (from ages one to 14 years among males, and from ages one to nine years among females). The reduction of infant mortality can have a large impact on the depopulation process, given that infant mortality represents the irreparable and immediate loss of population. Thus, reducing this indicator is of central importance (Anderson, 2002).

In the adult population, changes in mortality have been very modest, especially for men. A slight decrease in mortality was observed among males in the 15–39 age group, while mortality among men aged 40 and older remained at the same high level. Substantial reductions in mortality were found among women aged 40 and older, with the largest decrease being observed in the 45–64 age group. However, among the elderly population aged 65+, there was no significant decrease in mortality, especially among men. For women, the declining trend in mortality was continuous, and was especially pronounced in the 65–79 age group. A similar pattern, especially in the age structure of mortality, has been detected across Eastern European and Balkan countries (Marinković and Radivojević, 2016).

During the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in mortality was reported among males aged 65+ and among females aged 40+. The increase in mortality found among young males (aged 15–19) seems to be a statistical artefact due to small numbers, and does not represent a real increase in mortality in this age group. A recent study showed that the COVID-19 pandemic amplified premature mortality (Penina, 2021b).

In light of these findings, we can state that high mortality and its age and sex structure continue to be important elements of the process of depopulation. Low life expectancy and premature mortality lead to the loss of human lives, which, in turn, contributes to population decline.

The demographic projections for 2019–2040 show (in an I-low most likely scenario) that in the coming decades, demographic decline will continue at a fast pace in Moldova, increasing annually from 1.6% to 2.3%; and the population will decrease by 34.5%, to 1754.6 thousand (Gagauz et al., 2021). This level of depopulation can be avoided only if fertility increases substantially, but mortality and emigration fall. According to the medium scenario, the population will decrease by 28.2% to 1924.9 thousand; while according to the high scenario, the population will decrease by 21.5% to 2094.5 thousand.

The age-sex pyramid (Figure 9) acquires an “hourglass” shape due to the high levels of migration among young people. The pyramid profile will “weaken” rapidly, gaining a “pinched waist” in the middle and a solid peak reflecting the presence of many old people. A significant shortage of young adults is projected due to the low birth numbers of people born in the late 1990s to early 2000s, many of whom are actively involved in migration. According to the I-low scenario, by 2040, when these cohorts reach ages 30–39, they will be the smallest group in the total population, with their share decreasing from 15.6% to 7.7%.

At the same time, it is projected that people aged 50 and older will make up about half of the total population of Moldova by 2040, while the European Union will not reach the same level of ageing until 2060 (Lutz et al., 2018). It therefore appears that the process of population ageing is occurring two decades earlier in Moldova than in the EU. In Moldova, the median age is expected to increase from 37.3 to 47.3 years between 2019 and 2040. The more significant reductions in mortality projected in the II-medium and III-high scenarios would cause demographic ageing to accelerate, and the median age to increase to 48.5 and 49.7 years, respectively.

Past migration trends and low fertility levels are projected to lead to a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age, and to a long-term decline in the number of births. The magnitude of demographic ageing will be determined by the age-sex structure of the population formed in the previous period, and by recent trends in the rates of return from abroad of migrants of pre-retirement age. It is projected that the share of young people aged 0–19 in the population will decrease from 23.9% in 2019 to 17.6% in 2040, while the share of older people aged 65+ in the population will increase from 14.2% to 24.4% over the same period.