GI_Forum 2019, Volume 7, Issue 1 Journal for Geographic Information Science
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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GI_Forum 2019, Volume 7, Issue 1 Journal for Geographic Information Science
ISSN 2308-1708 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8609-0 Online Edition
Mustapha Harb ,
Michael Hagenlocher ,
Davide Cotti,
Elke Kratzschmar,
Hayet Baccouche,
Karem Ben Khaled,
Felicitas Bellert,
Bouraoui Chebil,
Anis Ben Fredj,
Sonia Ayed,
Matthias Garschagen
S. 3 - 9 doi:10.1553/giscience_2019_01_s3 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/giscience_2019_01_s3
Abstract: Under scenarios of urbanization coupled with increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards, urban disaster risk is set to rise. Simulating future urban expansion can provide relevant information for the development of future exposure scenarios and the identification of targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Here, we present an urban growth simulation for the coastal city of Monastir, Tunisia. The approach integrates local knowledge and a data-driven urban growth model to simulate urban sprawl up to 2030. A business-as-usual projection is used to predict the future growth of the city based on the historical trend. Thirteen Landsat images for the period 1975 to 2017 were used to delineate past changes in urban land cover following the European Urban Atlas standard, which served as the main input for the urban growth model. The simulation revealed that the city’s residential area is likely to grow by 127 ha to an overall size of 1,690 ha by 2030, corresponding to an increase of 8.1% compared to the urban footprint of 2017. The outcomes of the analysis presented here served as an input for the spatial simulation of future exposure to flash floods in the case study area. Keywords: urban growth, urbanization, SLEUTH, future projection, exposure Published Online: 2019/06/19 07:31:48 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003ab9fd Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
GI_Forum publishes high quality original research across the transdisciplinary field of Geographic Information Science (GIScience). The journal provides a platform for dialogue among GI-Scientists and educators, technologists and critical thinkers in an ongoing effort to advance the field and ultimately contribute to the creation of an informed GISociety. Submissions concentrate on innovation in education, science, methodology and technologies in the spatial domain and their role towards a more just, ethical and sustainable science and society. GI_Forum implements the policy of open access publication after a double-blind peer review process through a highly international team of seasoned scientists for quality assurance. Special emphasis is put on actively supporting young scientists through formative reviews of their submissions. Only English language contributions are published.
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |